Printing equipment makers generally released encouraging news following DRUPA.  Heidelberg announced that orders for the second quarter of 2012 (HD's first fiscal quarter) jumped to about EUR 890 million. 

The "DRUPA effect" is well known in the industry and can be easily recognized in the chart showing Heidelberg's new orders by quarter.  Nevertheless, Heidelberg's increase in orders is impressive, given the numbers released by its competitors as well as the assumption that additional equipment orders are largely responsible for the increase.  The publicly available data would suggest that Heidelberg improved its market position even further. 


As Heidelberg Goes, So Goes the Sheetfed Industry.  

Heidelberg's strong position warrants the adaption of the old saying about GM and a further look into the numbers could provide interesting clues about the future of the industry.

In my experience (and thanks to Alan Beaulieu from the Institute for Trend Research, www.itreconomics.com), looking at moving totals and rate-of-change (RoC) often provides better insight than the often volatile monthly or quarterly data. In the printing equipment industry, I found annual moving totals and the corresponding RoC most helpful. While the data is normally constructed using monthly data, it also works well with the quarterly figures available for Heidelberg.

The lower part of the chart below shows the quarterly orders (Q*4) and 4-quarter moving totals (4QMT) measured in millions of Euros. For easier comparison the quarterly orders are multiplied by 4 to fit within the parameters on the right hand axis. 

The upper part of the chart shows the rate-of-change.  The 4Q/12 shows the change of the current yearly data (4QMT) relative to a year ago. The Q/12 shows where the current quarterly data is realtive to a year ago.  The zero line means there is no growth.

The 12/12 indicates where the company is in the business cycle.  The blue line has turned up and shows positive growth.  The 3/12 dotted red line has passed above the 12/12 and indicates a potential transition to a positive business cycle. The next two quarters will confirm if the company will see a positive cycle or whether DRUPA 2012 provided false hope as we have seen after the previous DRUPA in 2008.

Given Heidelberg's dominant position in the printing equipment industry, this will be of interest to the entire sector.  

Of course it is easy to read newspapers online these days, but some of us still like to get their paper in the morning.

If that wouldn't prove so damn difficult.

After my recent job change opened the possibility to enjoy The Wall Street Journal during breakfast at home, I jumped at subscribing when a direct mail offer arrived from the Journal.  Talk about effective marketing!

Subscribing online was easy and soon I received my first copy, unfortunately late afternoon, delivered by the US Postal Service.  Since I had previously received the paper via local delivery at my previous home on the same road I contacted Customer Service and a friendly customer representative told me she would take care of the issue, no problem.  

A week later without change I contacted Customer Service again, this time through their web site and was told that my information had been forwarded to the local delivery supervisor for review. The WSJ kept arriving via USPS in the afternoon. No satisfaction!

Never one to easily give up I attempted my third approach, again online pleading my case of successful past local delivery, both at home and at my office. I also get Barron's locally delivered every Sunday! It must be possible.

I received this answer and I quote: "Thank you for contacting The Wall Street Journal Customer Center regarding deliver service. 

We have checked our records and it says there is a carrier available and we are trying to assign one to you but it has not taken effect yet. We have replace the request to change to carrier service to attempt to force the change. The change should be resolved and in effect by August 1st, 2012.

If we can further assist you please contact us at the number listed below.

Best Regards,"

Aahh, what could possibly go wrong after such positive confirmation?  Well, it is August 3rd (over a month into my subscription) and my paper continues to arrive in the afternoon.

I am still not throwing in the towel!  Diligent surveillance revealed that my next door neighbor receives the Wall Street Journal via local delivery every morning.  After a few drinks he agreed to provide me with the carrier's contact info, so I can help the Journal figure out how they already get the paper to this part of the world.  

Let's hope that this will work!  I am not ready to invest into two tablet PC's for the breakfast table, just so my wife and I can share the joy of reading the Wall Street Journal. (The multi-section broadsheet newspaper is really a clever product, if you think of it.) 

On a more serious note - and I sincerely hope that my case is not typical - how can the national papers grow their reach outside the large metroplitan areas if they make it so hard for a willing subcriber to get the paper in the morning? 

Given the challenges faced by the Postal Service, newspapers could consider investing into their own existing delivery system and use it to provide additional services, allowing the post office to streamline without the customers seeing a decline in overall delivery service.  It could be a win-win.

P.S.

It all worked out eventually and, given that I have a bit more time on my hands than I should, I enjoy the Journal every morning, delivered right to my doorstep.

Plus, I saved the money for the two tablets....